Key Highlights

Pakistan is experiencing an unprecedented surge in distributed solar adoption driven by a 155% rise in electricity tariffs over three years and a global supply glut of cheap Chinese panels. The study examines the scale, drivers, and implications of this largely untracked, people-led energy transition. Its objective is to validate import data, identify demand-side factors, and assess what this transformation means for Pakistan's power sector. Solar panel imports reached 14.7 GW worth USD 2.1 billion in FY24 alone, with off-grid installations estimated at 2-3 times the net-metered capacity, signaling a fundamental shift away from the centralized grid. Policymakers must urgently adapt grid infrastructure, revise demand projections, and open the electricity market to avoid a utility death spiral as distributed solar permanently reshapes consumption patterns.