China-powered Solar Rush quietly outpacing its coal legacy in Pakistan
ISLAMABAD, Jun 5: Renewables First has launched a new report titled “Leader of One or Leader of None - China’s Choice for Clean over Coal in Pakistan”, exploring China’s growing paradoxes in the Global South as both a clean energy powerhouse and fossil fuel financier, with Pakistan as a critical case study.
About Renewables First
Renewables First is a Pakistan-based think tank dedicated to advancing sustainable energy solutions and environmental conservation. Through research, collaboration, and innovative initiatives, the organisation aims to drive positive change in Pakistan’s energy sector and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change.
Global Context
The exit of the United States from the Paris Agreements created uncertainty over global climate leadership. While several de-facto contenders emerged, China — the world’s largest carbon emitter — stands out as a global powerhouse in clean energy manufacturing, supplying renewable technologies widely used to fight climate change.
Pakistan’s Solar Rush
These technologies have recently sparked a major energy shift in Pakistan known as the Solar Rush, driven not by government policy or corporate boards, but by rooftops, farms, and factory sheds. In just five years, more than 39 GW of solar panels — nearly all from China — have entered Pakistan, exceeding three-quarters of the nation’s installed generation capacity. Yet the global significance of this transformation remains largely unrecognised.
China’s Dual Role
The report highlights China’s dual role in the Global South: as a leading financier of fossil fuels and as a supplier of solar and wind technologies. The Solar Rush emerged through open competition, favourable trade policies, and a flood of low-cost technology rather than a top-down strategy.
Between 2020 and early 2025, China exported more solar panels to Pakistan than many G20 nations, with over 16 GW imported in 2024 alone. Meanwhile, coal investments are increasingly high-risk, as billions of dollars remain tied up in Chinese-financed coal-fired power plants.
Impact on Pakistan’s Grid
As solar adoption grew, legacy coal plants saw utilisation drop to as low as 4% in some projects by 2024. Capacity payments increased, and grid electricity costs rose for those still dependent on it.
“China’s solar panels are outcompeting China’s power plants. What we are seeing is an unintentional but profound strategic contradiction. Pakistan is ground zero for this global experiment in energy disruption.” — Muhammad Basit Ghauri, Lead Author
Opportunities and Challenges
The report raises a fundamental question: will China fully embrace its role as the world’s clean energy champion, or maintain the status quo, leaving its investments and global leadership at risk?
The opportunity is still alive but shrinking. With distributed solar displacing centralised generation, Pakistan now needs more than panels — it requires storage systems, grid upgrades, local manufacturing, financial tools, and a roadmap to transition away from stranded coal assets.
Global Implications
Pakistan may be the first country to experience such a large-scale clash between legacy coal and democratised solar, but it will not be the last. If China navigates these challenges successfully, it could lead Pakistan’s energy transition and establish a new Global South energy paradigm that is fast, fair, and transformative.