Report analyses impact of solar imports on Pakistan’s power sector
KARACHI: Renewables First, a think tank focused on energy and the environment, has launched a new report titled “Leader of One or Leader of None – China’s Choice for Clean over Coal in Pakistan”. The study examines China’s growing paradox in the Global South: acting both as a clean energy powerhouse and a financier of fossil fuels, with Pakistan serving as a pivotal case study.
Global Energy Context
America’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement raised uncertainty over international climate leadership. While several de facto contenders have emerged, China — the world’s largest carbon emitter — has become a dominant force in clean energy manufacturing, supplying renewable technologies crucial for combating climate change.
The Solar Rush in Pakistan
The report documents Pakistan’s “solar rush,” a people-driven energy shift occurring on rooftops, farms, and factory sheds. In five years, over 39 GW of solar panels — nearly all sourced from China — have entered Pakistan, exceeding three-quarters of the country’s installed generation capacity. This transformation has largely gone unnoticed globally but carries significant implications for climate leadership. More details on Pakistan’s solar revolution.
Impact on Coal Power Plants
China’s dual role is evident: while exporting solar technology, it also finances coal projects in Pakistan. As solar adoption accelerates, coal plants are increasingly underutilized, with some operating at just 4% capacity by 2024. Capacity payments have risen, and electricity costs for remaining grid consumers have increased. See our report on fossil fuel decline vs solar growth.
“China’s solar panels are outcompeting China’s power plants. What we are seeing is an unintentional but profound strategic contradiction. Pakistan is ground zero for this global experiment in energy disruption.” — Muhammad Basit Ghauri, Lead Author
Future Outlook and Solutions
The report raises a critical question: will China embrace its role as a global clean energy leader, or maintain the status quo and risk both investments and global leadership? With decentralized solar displacing centralized power, Pakistan now requires not only panels but also storage solutions, grid upgrades, local manufacturing, financial instruments, and a clear strategy for transitioning away from stranded coal assets. Explore energy storage and grid solutions.
Pakistan may be the first country to experience such a large-scale clash between legacy coal and decentralized solar, but it will not be the last. If China navigates these challenges effectively, it could not only lead Pakistan’s energy transition but also set a global example for the Global South — rapid, equitable, and transformative.
Article / Report originally published at: The News