China-powered Solar Rush is quietly outpacing its coal legacy in Pakistan
Renewables First has launched a new report titled “Leader of One or Leader of None - China’s Choice for Clean over Coal in Pakistan”, exploring China’s paradoxical role as a clean energy powerhouse and fossil fuel financier in the Global South, with Pakistan as a critical case study.
The exit of the United States from the Paris Agreement threw global climate action into uncertainty. While official leadership wavered, China emerged as a major influence, supplying clean energy technologies used worldwide to fight climate change. These tools have fueled a profound energy shift in Pakistan — a “Solar Rush” driven by rooftops, farms, and factory sheds rather than government mandates.
Pakistan’s Solar Transformation
In just five years, over 39 GW of solar panels, nearly all imported from China, have entered Pakistan — enough to exceed three-quarters of the country’s installed national generation capacity. This rapid adoption is detailed in Pakistan’s solar revolution.
The report highlights China’s dual role in the Global South: financing fossil fuels while simultaneously supplying solar and wind technology. Pakistan’s people-led solar market grew through open competition, favorable trade policies, and an influx of low-cost panels, creating one of the fastest-growing solar markets globally.
China’s Solar vs. Coal in Pakistan
From 2020 to early 2025, China exported more solar panels to Pakistan than to many G20 nations, with over 16 GW imported in 2024 alone. Meanwhile, coal investments have become high-risk assets, as legacy Chinese-financed coal plants face falling demand.
As solar adoption increased, self-generation reduced reliance on the grid, causing some coal power plants’ utilisation to drop to as low as 4% by 2024. Capacity payments surged, and electricity prices for grid-dependent consumers rose — a paradox explored further in Renewables First publications.
“China’s solar panels are outcompeting China’s power plants,” said Muhammad Basit Ghauri, lead author of the report. “Pakistan is ground zero for this global experiment in energy disruption.”
Opportunities and Challenges Ahead
Despite challenges, opportunities remain. Pakistan’s distributed solar is displacing centralized generation, but the country still needs storage systems, grid upgrades, local manufacturing, and financing tools to fully transition away from stranded coal assets.
Pakistan may be the first to experience the clash between legacy coal and democratized solar at scale, but it will not be the last. Success here could establish China as the architect of a new Global South energy paradigm — one that is fast, fair, and transformative.